THE brutal 12-day war that started with Israel`s aggression against Iran has ended with both sides claiming victory. Israel`s chief patronfinancier-arms supplier and ally, the United States, which jumped into the hostilities for a few hours on the final day, also made claims about obliterating Tehran`s alleged nuclear weapons programme.

But surely everyone could not have won the same war. So let`s first assess the two military machines widely acknowledged as being among the most lethal that there could be. First, the one that has dominated the Middle East over the past several decades and extended its land grab and occupation from Palestine to Syria to the West Bank every single day: it is feared by all its neighbours and their neighbours in the region.

Several weeks before it struck Iran, Israel hosted the former Shah of Iran`s son, Reza Pahalvi, and welcomed him with a gusto usually reserved for heads of state. Reza Pahalvi is not recognised as a major political force in Iranian politics and society.

Then, when Israel attacked Iran without a declaration of war and executed its decapitation strategy, slicing off the top layer of Iran`s military (including the Islamic Republic Guards Corps, better known in the West by its acronym IRGC), and nearly a dozen top nuclear scientists along with their families, Reza Shah became hyperactive on social media, calling on Iranians to rise in rebellion against their `regime`.

Israel also attacked Iran`s nuclear facilities, including enrichment plants at Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan, besides military targets. This was to create a chain reaction triggering a collapse in Iran. But its psychopathic prime minister was soon to realise that all the stealth and hi-tech intelligence that went into his `shock` strike failed to produce the desired results.

Netanyahu`s goals in attacking Iran were clear.

First, his genocidal regime was coming under increasing international pressure to stop its ethnic cleansing in Gaza. Its military machine was killing besieged Palestinians by the hundreds every week by bombing, unleashing missiles, and directly firing at unarmed civilians in Gaza while simultaneously inflicting starvation on them. He needed a diversion. It was momentary. How else would you describe a 12-day `distraction` from an ongoing war on mostly unarmed, starving civil-ians for 20 months? Second, and most ideally, if a regime change proved difficult (turned out it was impossible) despite activating Reza Pahalvi, then a regime collapse would suffice with a state of civil war in the country and minority ethnicities/nations such as the Kurds and possibly the Baloch, to name just two, carving out autonomous zones in the northwest and southeast, respectively, to then serve as a launching pad to challenge those at the helm in Tehran.

The hope that Iranians would pour into the streets and a weakened government would be unable to contain the multitudes evaporated soon enough. The external aggression seemed to unite Iranians. Many who have suffered imprisonment and indignities at the hands of Iran`s theocratic government took to social media to denounce the Israeli aggression.

The third, and the most significant, goal was tosuck the US into the war, because, notwithstanding his bravado, Netanyahu knew the limits of his military tools given the formidable underground nuclear facilities of Iran some say up to 100 metres in cases.

Less than 24 hours after Israel killed the military leadership, it became clear a succession plan was in place and all the vacant positions were quickly filled. Tehran, which was under relentless air attacks after the destruction of its air defence system, starting firing missiles at Israel. Many, including this columnist, thought this was token defiance. But every day, newer and more lethal missiles started landing in Tel Avis, Haifa, Ashdod and Beersheba, to mention just a few.

Soon, Israel`s reputedly impenetrable `Iron Dome` was leaking missiles like a sieve.

Israelis, who have rarely been at the receiving end of devastation, apart from small Russianmade rockets fired by Hezbollah in its heyday,started to see their intel centre, defence ministry, military AI hubs, iconic scientific research buildings, power generation plants, airports, and seaport hit by lethal missile warheads. Even residential blocks were not spared.

Trump defied his anti-war MAGA support base, but only just. He called on the US Air Force to attack Iran`s Fordow nuclear site, buried deep under mountains, with 30,000-pound `bunker buster` bombs. He then sued for peace after a seemingly scripted and largely ineffective retaliatory missile attack on an American base in Qatar. Israel which, many experts said, was running low on anti-missile missiles asked the US to initiate steps to secure a ceasefire.

Early US intelligence assessments and independent analyses suggest reversible damage to Iran`s nuclear sites and not the `totally obliterated` claim that Trump made. But, I guess, he too needed a win and cessation of hostilities before he`d have to commit more US forces, including ground forces. And that was something his MAGA supporters would have shredded him for.

As for Iran, the fact that it survived to fight another day is a win in itself. There are suggestions some sort of a Gaza peace deal is being worked out to calm things down further. If that materialises and does not create `Trump`s Gaza Rivera`, that would be huge. The killing in Gaza must stop.

Over the medium to long term, many analysts see this ceasefire as a breather during which both sides will regroup, rearm and prepare for the next round. Israel will still have vital US support, and that of America`s European minions. The Nato summit underlined the nature of the US-Europe relationship.

Iran will do well to draw the right lessons from the fate of its Axis of Resistance allies Hezbollah in Lebanon and Bashar al-Assad in Syria: how Israel can degrade military capability in the first instance and effect regime change in the second.

Whatever the long term may hold, for now, Iran`s theocratic government, which can turn on oppression at home at the drop of a hat, has come to represent the many defiant aspirations of oppressed peoples around the world. • The wnter is a former editor of Dawn.

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