PUNJAB and Sindh are facing varying levels of water shortages, despite abundant availability of water in the river system. But that water cannot be released due to operational issues at the Tarbela Dam, which Wapda has failed to address in time.

This is a Catch-22 for the authorities. If the water release is forced, it might compromise the production of around 1,500MW of electricity during the peak summer season, when every megawatt is worth its weight in gold due to high demand.

According to official data, the water inflow in rivers on Friday was 435,900 cusecs, around 131,200 cusecs more than the inflow on the same day last year.

The inflow was also 95,800 cusecs higher than the last five-year average of 340.1 cusecs.

This year, the Indus river carried 14.97 million acre feet (MAF) of water against its 10-year average of 11.4MAF between April 1 and June 20.

However, this glut was mildly offset by a drop in water levels of other rivers Kabul by 37 per cent, Jehlum by 24pc and Chenab by 8pc.

Still, the water in Indus resulted in the storage of 4.6MAF of water in Tarbela and Mangla dams, which is 1.4MAF more than the last five-year average of 3.26MAF.

Despite this healthy supply, Sindh received only 153,000 cusecs on Friday, against its demand of 180,000 cusecs, resulting in a 15pc shortage.

Similarly, Punjab received 122,000 cusecs against its demand of 145,000 cusecs, resulting in a deficit of 16pc.

The shortages have disturbed the water calculation for irrigation and imperilled the sowing of maize and rice and maturing of cotton and sugarcane.

The Indus River System Authority (Irsa), which distributes water among provinces, has demanded 195,000 cusecs of water from the Indus river, but is only getting 150,000 cusecs, a shortage of45,000 cusecs.

The deficit is naturally being passed on to Punjab and Sindh, resulting in much flak for the water regulator.

On June 24, the Sindh government wrote a letter to the Irsa protesting the reduced water supply during the sowing season.

In response, the regulator wrote a letter to Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda), which constructs and manages water reservoirs, complaining that its demand for water from TarbelaDam wasn`t being fulfilled.

Besides provincial shortages, the Mangla dam can also not be filled due to lesser releases from Tarbela, leaving Irsa unable to fully meet Punjab`s demand for water.

The water regulator urged Wapda to release water as per its demand to `prevent agricultural loss to the farming community`.

Untested outlet the culprit On its part, Irsa blames water shortages on technicalissues at the Tarbela Dam, caused by the construction of Tunnel-5.

According to Irsa spokesman Khalid Idrees Rana, Tunnel-5 was built to produce an additional 1,450 MW of electricity. With it, Wapda added another low-level outlet (LLO) to release 30,000 cusecs of water from the dam when required.

Water is released from a dam via two outlets: spillways and tunnels.

Spillways are giant gates that are opened when the dam is completely filled. When the dam is not fully filled, the water is released via tunnels and outlets below the spillways.

These outlets require extensive testing after construction to ensure they withstand the water pressure without damaging the dam`s structural integrity.

Wapda sought a 33-month no-objection certificate to build, test and operationalise the outlet.

The deadline expires today (June 30), but Wapda has been unable to even test the outlet, let alone use it for water discharge.

Azam Joya, Wapda general manager (C&M), told Dawn the authority tested the LLO in 2023 by releasing water to 13pc of its capacity, but the gushing water hit transmission lines and blew them away.

Later, transmission lines wereraised higher with new poles installed in the next 10 months.

In 2024, the outlet was tested to 82pc capacity when it started vibrating and the test was aborted for corrective measures.

The issues have now been addressed but final testing an operational necessity couldn`t be done due to the unexpected rise in water level in the Indus river.

According to Mr Joya, the outlet can only be tested after summer when the water recedes.

Reality, for now Wapda is now in a quandary it can release water through the untested outlet and jeopardise not only the outlet but also tunnel T-5 and perhaps the entire dam and knock 1,450MW electricity out of the system or it can wait for the water to recede and then test the outlet.

A former Wapda official said the authority lacked the weight to take such big decisions; either open the outlet untested or continue inflicting water shortages on provinces.

`Political and government leaders should take it up and decide the matter because it involves massive financial and political cost,` said the ex-Wapda official, who wished not to be named because he was not authorised to speak on the issue.

Whatever the case may be, a decision should be made `before it gets to a level where everyone starts feeling the heat`.

For now, it appears the provinces will have to live with water shortages, as any water release from the untested outlet is too risky.

`The Irsa and the nation have to live with this reality,` said Mr Rana, the water regulator spokesperson, implying water shortages for the time being.raised higher with new poles installed in the next 10 months.

In 2024, the outlet was tested to 82pc capacity when it started vibrating and the test was aborted for corrective measures.

The issues have now been addressed but final testing an operational necessity couldn`t be done due to the unexpected rise in water level in the Indus river.

According to Mr Joya, the outlet can only be tested after summer when the water recedes.

Reality, for now Wapda is now in a quandary it can release water through the untested outlet and jeopardise not only the outlet but also tunnel T-5 and perhaps the entire dam and knock 1,450MW electricity out of the system or it can wait for the water to recede and then test the outlet.

A former Wapda official said the authority lacked the weight to take such big decisions; either open the outlet untested or continue inflicting water shortages on provinces.

`Political and government leaders should take it up and decide the matter because it involves massive financial and political cost,` said the ex-Wapda official, who wished not to be named because he was not authorised to speak on the issue.

Whatever the case may be, a decision should be made `before it gets to a level where everyone starts feeling the heat`.

For now, it appears the provinces will have to live with water shortages, as any water release from the untested outlet is too risky.

`The Irsa and the nation have to live with this reality,` said Mr Rana, the water regulator spokesperson, implying water shortages for the time being.