ISLAMABAD: The Ministry of Textile Industry has predicted decline in cotton production to accelerate, which could compel farmers to shif t to other crops if no corrective measures are taken by the provincial governments, of ficials told Dawn.

The warning has come at a time when the federal government is considering allowing the import of cotton to bridge the shortf all in local production.

Cotton acreage has already shrunk by 22 per cent over the last 10 years because of low yields, according to the ministry. Another major reason behind the downtrend is better returns in growing sugarcane because of policy incentives offered by the government for that crop.

Climate change also has indirectly affected the cotton crop since 2010. Devastating pest attacks have been another factor in declining cotton productivity over the years.

All that resulted in price crash for cotton f armers as they got Rs2,200-2,500 per 40 kilograms against their production cost of Rs3,000. As the dilemma persisted formanyyears,the farmers felt compelled to shift to other cash crops, such as sugarcane, rice and maize, which of fered better returns.

Official data compiled by the textile industry shows the acreage of maize increased 24pc, rice 7pc and sugarcane 14pc f rom 2005-06 to 2016-17, mainly because of reduction in cotton area.

A senior official of the textile ministry said low cotton yield had a direct impact on textile and garment exports, 75pc of which are based on cotton.

`Any variation cotton yield has a direct impact on exports of textile and clothing,` the of ficial said.

Pakistan aims to cultivate cotton on 3.2 million hectares annually, including 72pc (2.6m) hectares in Punjab, 27pc (600,000) in Sindh and less than 1pc in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.

Another official of the Ministry of National Food Security and Research said the per-acre yield of cotton has stagnated since 1991, which has left the country with no choice but to import cotton to meet the domestic demand. The only reason for this was non-introduction of new varieties and new technology.

The issue will mostly be now resolved after the promulgation of the much-awaited Plant Breeder`s Rights Act 2016 in December. The law will now encourage the development of new plant varieties and to protect the rights of breeders of new varieties as well. The act will help in establishing a viable seed industry in the country.

Unlike cotton, government`s support to the sugarcane crop has helped increased its cultivation by 14pc. The price of sugar also more than doubled to Rs68 per kg in 2016 from Rs31 in 2005-06. The price of sugar inthe domestic market is almost 80pc higher than the international market.

Moreover, the number of sugar mills went up from 56 in 1995-96 to 84 in 2015-16. Of them, 45 mills were in Punjab, 32 in Sindh and eight in KP. Almost 70pc of the country`s sugar mills are located in core cotton zone of the country, especially in Punjab.

Analysts say that this unexplained protection to sugar and unprecedented expansion of sugar industry were posing threat to cotton and other crops.

To look into all these issues, the government has tasked Pakistan Central Cotton Committee to study the sector and come up with some concrete recommendations. The committee has evolved a report and submitted to the textile industry in November 2016.

The report also mentioned the impact of climate change on cotton production. Heavy floods and rain caused a loss of around Rs14.409bn to cotton crop in 2015, according to the report. A similar trend of loss was also seen in the previous years with the worst impact of Rs98.091bn in 2010 due to floods.