INDIAN Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit China for the first time in seven years as he attends the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin starting today, after being targeted by US President Donald J. Trump with punitive tariffs for importing Russian oil.

Former governor of the Reserve Bank of India Raghuram Rajan told CNBC that a significant aspect of the Modi visit was signalling to the US that India could explore `other options` to pursue if the White House continued to single it out for punitive tariffs.

However, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri told journalists that his country and prime minister would be aiming to secure an unequivocal condemnation of cross..border terrorism at the summit. This, despite failing, as recently as June this year, to get the organisation to condemn Pakistan for `terrorism` in Indian-held Kashmir (because there was no evidence) which led to a war between the two countries.

President Trump says he mediated an end to that war, with Pakistan not only agreeing with him, but also nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize. For its part, India maintains that the deescalation followed direct contact between the directors-general of military operations of the two countries.

That India and US relations are adrift is evident from the fact that Delhi has repeatedly asked why it is being singled out when China, Turkiye and even EU member states import oil and gas from Russia, despite sanctions due to the war in Ukraine. But its protestations have delivered nothing so far.

Analysts say India is shell-shocked at Trump`s new tariffs (25 per cent plus 25pc punitive) at a time when it was expecting to get the MostFavoured Nation status from the US and preferential access to its market. So, it is now turning to Beijing. Even as it turns to Beijing, India appears confused about what it may want from the grouping. More trade or merely a condemnation of terrorism? In his vlog, former Indian Army officer and strategic affairs analyst Pravin Sawhney says that India`s diplomatic inanities won`t be able to secure its desired outcome for the simple reasonthat the grouping sees security as indivisible and not a zero-sum game. So, unless India is prepared to enter into a genuine dialogue with Pakistan over Kashmir, no matter how long it takes to resolve the issue, nothing much will be gained by India from the SCO, says Sawhney.

This argument is lent credence by the crisp response of the Chinese ambassador to India Xu Feihong, who was asked earlier this month at a talk organised to look ahead at the SCO summit, about terrorism and Pakistan`s alleged role in it by a member of the audience. `Pakistan itself is a victim of terrorism.

But China`s trade priorities were clear from the words of Ambassador Xu Feihong about the USsanctions on India. He said that Beijing firmly opposes Washington`s steep tariffs on Delhi and likened the US to a bully.

The BBC quoted him as saying that the US had long benefited from free trade but was now using tariffs as a `bargaining chip` to demand `exorbitant prices` from other nations. He also called for deeper trade ties between his country and India and easier access to each other`s markets.

Raghuram Rajan, who is now a professor at the University of Chicago`s Booth School of Business, asks some fundamental questions about the Russian oil imports by India. He says initially India thought it was helping the US maintain global economic stability by buying Russian oil and keeping prices from spiralling. He says now the matter has become entangled in the issue of sovereignty or India could have easily switched to importing oil from elsewhere. But it would bepolitically very difficult now as there is so much anger in the country and anti-US sentiment. (The US is India`s biggest export market).

Most significantly, he asks who is benefiting most from Russian oil imports and whether those profiting should then subsidise exporters hit by American sanctions such as the shrimp, gem and jewellery, pharmaceutical and textile industries.

It is believed it is the billionaire cronies of Modi who are profiting from Russian crude imports.

They get discounted crude and export refined petroleum products at market prices.

Rajan describes a three-point rationale for the tariffs. The first is the Trump desire to cut America`s burgeoning trade deficit; secondly, Trump mistakenly believes that the cost of the tariffs will be borne by the foreign exporter to the US and not the domestic buyer/ customer; and finally to use tariffs as a weapon where military power can`t be used. He said he can`t answer why India is being singled out.

The answer seems very simple. Trump will bully those he can. He can`t really bully China, which remains one of the major causes of the US trade deficit simply because China holds so much US debt that it can destabilise the American economy and the dollar by dumping it.

As far as the EU and Turl(ey are concerned, he can squeeze them to a point and not beyond because he needs both onside to be able to protect Israel`s political, economic and, most significantly, security interests. That is Trump`s topmost priority. He seems beholden to Israel beyond the normal for whatever reason.

That pretty much leaves India. And India it is.

Rajan describes it as power play driven by the exigencies of the present, as Trump thinks India does not play by his rules. So, he will try and force it to. The former Indian central bank governor says sovereignty is a worthy, valid issue but there should be a clear understanding in India of its economic cost.

If India wishes to defray some of the economic cost via the SCO, it may have to accept the principle of indivisible security. Will it? m The writer is a former editor of Dawn.

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