HE extraordinary El Niño gathering strength in the Pacific could make 2026 the hottest year on record, with 2027 hotter still. According to the EU`s Copernicus climate service, sea temperatures in a Pacific region reached a record high in September. US forecasters expect the phenomenon, which changes weather patterns worldwide, to remain strong into early next year. For Pakistan, its effects could stretch across several seasons. El Niño can influence the western weather systems that bring winter rain and snow to the northern mountains, while it has often been linked with weaker monsoons in South Asia. The coming winter`s snowfall will be important: snow stored in the mountains helps feed the Indus and its tributaries as temperatures rise. Heavy winter rain, if it replaces snowfall, could leave less water stored for the hotter months. Too little accumulation could reduce the water available to farms in spring and summer.

A weaker monsoon in 2027 would put additional pressure on reservoirs and irrigation supplies. At the same time, a warmer year would mean greater demand for water and electricity.

Much will depend on how these changes affect the country`s water supplies and crops. Wheat growers depend on winter rainfall and irrigation, while rice and cotton farmers rely heavily on summer water supplies. A shortage at the wrong time could cut yields, hurt rural incomes and push up food prices. That would affect families struggling with household expenses and add to the import bill if production falls short. Nor would farmers be the only ones affected: reduced river flows could constrain hydropower generation just as hotter weather drives up demand for electricity. Pakistan, therefore, needs a thorough assessment of what El Niño could mean for the months ahead. The Met Office should provide clear, regularly updated guidance on winter precipitation and the outlook for the next monsoon. Water authorities must use it to plan reservoir releases and irrigation allocations, while agricultural departments should help farmers choose crops and planting dates suited to changing conditions.

These decisions cannot wait until fields are dry or prices start rising. El Niño begins in a distant ocean, but its possible effects on Pakistan`s water, harvests and economy are close to home.

The country has advance warning of a difficult period; it should make that warning useful.