KARACHI: ‘We have an 800pound gorilla in the room, which is the United States. But there is also a 720-pound gorilla here who would like to gain more weight, which is China. And all the rest are 50 pound monkeys jumping around here and there.
So if you think of this seriously there is no way that the system in the future will become multipolar.
This was said by Carlo Masala, Professor of Securityand Defence Policy at the University of Federal Armed Forces in Munich, Germany, while in conversation with Assistant Professor Sajjad Ahmad of the Department of Social Sciences and Liberal Arts at IBA on Friday.
His talk on ‘The Evolution of the International Order and Current Structural Changes’ focused on the tectonic shifts being experienced by the world of our times. ‘The idea that the future system of the world will be multipolar is an illusion because it is not based on empirical facts,’ he said.
‘If the system becomes bipolar, then this bipolarity won’t resemble the old bipolarity between the two superpowers of the world, the US and the Soviet Union. The old bipolarity between them was mainly char-acterised by an arms race. The question of who has more nuclear weapons, who has a better delivery system was key to this competition,’ he added.
‘The arms race will also play a role between China and the US, the new superpowers. But they won’t dominate this bipolar competition. What will dominate this bipolar competition are mainly two factors. This is geo-economic rivalry, which is who controls which part of the world that is more important for trade, who is in control of resources for their own production while making other countries dependent on their export,’ the professor explained.
‘That’s why Donald Trump, when he came to power, said that they want control of Panama and the Panama Canal.You may think they are the words of a mad king, but there is a geo-economic reasoning behind this. He wanted control over the Panama Canal because at that time the Chinese were trying to buy two of their ports.
Then after Trump’s open admission of his wishes, the president of Panama said that they had some discussion with China but it didn’t work out.
‘The Europeans, Americans and Chinese are also fighting over the control of the Port of Djibouti because it is one of the most important ports when it comes to supply chains.
‘Then there is also looking at who is more innovative when it comes to new technology.
Everyone is talking about AI but what a lot of people miss is robotics. These two will be very important in the future,’ hesaid, adding that at the moment both China and the US are in children’s shoes with regard to technology. ‘They have not managed to make both of these technologies into daily products for everyone. If that happens, the country which manages to do it will have a huge advantage economically in this future competition between China and the US,’ he said.
The good news for Germany and Pakistan is that there is another aspect which we have both seen that will also not resemble the old bipolarity between the US and the Soviet Union. During the Cold War, half of the world sided with Washington and the rest sided with Moscow. The same will be the case in the new bipolarity. ‘This time all are looking for better offers. If that better offer comes from Beijing, they will side with China, if it comes from Washington, they will side with the US. They don’t want to be pressed into a permanent alliance or partnership while becoming dependent on any of the two 800pound gorillasin theinternational system,’ Professor Masala pointed out.
He also said that looking at the geo-strategic location of Pakistan, the country’s population is something like 270 million, which is huge. ‘If you were located in Europe, you would have been a superpower. But unfortunately for you, you are located in a region where your neighbours have a triple more people than you. S o in this region you are a middle power, not a superpower. That’s the tragedy of geography,’ he said.’The question whether the system will be bipolar or unipolar will be decidedhere.Itwon’tbe decided in Europe. So the pressure on Pakistan will be extremely high.
As all these powers have ways to coerce other countries to be dragged into their orbit. The only way to withstand the pressure is to create as many alliances and partnerships with countries that have a similar perception of the international system.
‘The most important change for this region as well as Europe in the past 10 years is actually the Trump Administration. Because the Trump Administration has a policy to have partners and allies all around the globe. If the middle powers are creating stronger economic and political connections between themselves worldwide they will have enough power to basically be on an eye-to-eye level with the main powers,’ the professor concluded.