TH E Institute of Cost and Management Accountants of Pakistan (ICMA) has released its Pre-Monetary Policy Outlook ahead of the State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting, as per a press release.
ICMA’s analysis shows that petroleum import movements have historically preceded headline inflation at threeto nine-month horizons, particularly during 2022-23, reflecting transmission through transportation, production and distribution costs.
Core inflation displayed similar lagged effects, underscoring the risk of second-round impacts. Exchangerate movements also preceded headline and core inflation during significant periods, though the relationship was not uniform, reversing between July 2025 and January 2026 when inflation itself led the exchange rate.
The report emphasises that petroleum costs and rupee depreciation together amplify domestic energy costs, making them critical signals for policymakers. With headline inflation rising in August, ICMA stresses the importance of distinguishing between temporary shocks and persistent underlying inflation.